WFP forecast as many as 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices remained $100/barrel
Internally displaced people sit outside their makeshift shelters in Kahda district of Mogadishu, Somalia May 7, 2026. PHOTO: REUTERS
The Middle East conflict is pushing millions of people closer to hunger, as rising fuel and transport costs drive up food prices while funding shortfalls force aid agencies to scale back assistance, the UN World Food Programme said on Friday.
Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February triggered a regional conflict stretching across the Gulf and into Lebanon, disrupting key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, forcing vessels to reroute and sharply constraining global energy flows and supply chains.
In March, the WFP forecast that as many as 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if oil prices remained around $100 per barrel through June. That scenario is now unfolding, the agency said, with benchmark crude prices staying above that level since early March.
Households in Afghanistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka are among the most seriously affected and face mounting pressure due to higher fuel costs, food price spikes, income losses and disrupted trade.
Read: Israeli army warns residents of 3 Lebanese towns to evacuate despite renewed ceasefire
In Somalia, 6.5 million people – roughly a third of the population – are expected to face severe hunger in 2026, while Afghanistan could see 17.4 million people affected, the WFP said. The situation is projected to worsen, with an additional 2.5 million Somalis and 2.3 million Afghans at risk of falling into food insecurity if disruptions persist. Both countries are reliant on imported energy and food.
The Middle East crisis comes amid a deep funding shortfall for aid agencies. The WFP said it expected to serve 1.5 million fewer people globally in 2026, and an extra 9 million fewer if the situation persists for six months.
In Afghanistan, surging fuel prices have driven up aid transport costs as much as fivefold, and delivery times have shot up from 10 days up to as many as 75 days as trucks had to use alternative corridors, the WFP said.
In Somalia, soaring jet fuel prices are leading to higher operational costs for the United Nations Humanitarian Air Service – the only means to access hard-to-reach areas safely, the WFP said.
